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Japan's GDP Growth May Slow by 0.65 Percentage Point If Oil Price Surges to $140
Japan's economic growth may slow down by 0.65 percentage point if oil prices jump to U.S.$140 per barrel, experts predict.  Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) will be severely impacted by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,  oil prices may skyrocket to U.S.$140 dollars , Experts predict that in the worst-case scenario, Japan's annual economic growth could shrink by 0.65 percentage points. Nobuhide Kiuchi, a researcher at Nomura Research Institute, forecasts that under three different scenarios—optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic—international oil prices could surge by 14.9%, 29.9%, and 109.0%, reaching approximately $77, $87, and $140 per barrel, respectively. In the worst-case scenario, Japan’s real GDP annual growth could be dragged down by 0.65 percentage points, while the inflation rate could be pushed up by 1.14 percentage points. Taro Saito, head of the Economic Research Department at the Japan Research Institute, expresses concern about a further deterioration of the situation. He predicts that if oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, Japan's real economic growth may decline by 0.31%.
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