TMTPOST -- TikTok could be banned in the U.S. as soon as January 19 unless the Supreme Court rules in favor of ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, in a last-minute appeal claiming the ban violates constitutional rights. However, even if the court sides with Congress and lower courts deeming TikTok a national security threat, will it actually stop Americans from using the app?

 Can TikTok Still Be Used If Banned?

If the U.S. bans TikTok, the likely first step would involve ordering app stores like Google Play and Apple’s App Store to remove it. While this would block new downloads, existing users would still have access—at least temporarily.

However, without updates, TikTok would gradually become less functional, prone to bugs, and increasingly vulnerable to security threats. Hackers could target the app, given the absence of critical updates designed to patch vulnerabilities.

Savvy users might turn to workarounds, such as using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass regional restrictions or modifying device settings to access foreign app stores. Still, these methods often violate terms of service, present cybersecurity risks, or potentially breach copyright laws. Moreover, the government could escalate restrictions by banning internet hosting services from facilitating access to TikTok. 

Another possibility mirrors India’s approach after banning TikTok in 2020: requiring internet providers to block access entirely. ByteDance could also enforce the ban itself, potentially showing U.S.-based users a message stating the app is unavailable in their region.

Why Does the U.S. Ban TikTok?

The U.S. government’s primary concern is TikTok’s alleged ties to the Chinese government via ByteDance, which it claims could use the app to access American user data or influence public opinion. These concerns have driven bipartisan support for action against the app, leading to legislative efforts and ongoing legal battles.

Will Donald Trump Intervene?

President-elect Donald Trump has publicly opposed the law that underpins the TikTok ban and asked the Supreme Court to delay its implementation. However, if the court upholds the ban, Trump has limited options to overturn it directly.

One alternative would be instructing the Department of Justice not to enforce the ban, effectively allowing TikTok to continue operating despite the law. However, this would place tech companies like Apple and Google in a precarious position, relying on presidential assurances rather than legal immunity.

 Who Benefits If TikTok is Banned?

TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users, who spent an average of 51 minutes daily on the app in 2024, represent a lucrative market for its competitors. Analysts expect platforms like Instagram Reels (Meta) and YouTube Shorts (Google) to benefit most from displaced TikTok users, advertisers, and creators.

“Chief marketing officers we’ve spoken with confirmed that they would divert media dollars to Meta and Google if TikTok is no longer an option,” said Kelsey Chickering, principal analyst at Forrester. Similar behavior occurred in India when TikTok was banned.

However, ByteDance’s Lemon8 app, another potential alternative, may also face restrictions under the proposed law due to its connection to the same parent company.

Other platforms, including Twitch and Xiaohongshu, known asRedNote in the U.S., could gain users, though they lack TikTok’s signature features like TikTok Shop. TikTok Shop, which allows users to buy products directly from videos, has become a significant revenue source for U.S. creators.

Could TikTok Be Sold?

Tech moguls and business magnates like Elon Musk could be expected to shell out tens of billions of dollars if TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, decides to sell its U.S. operations. ByteDance, however, has not indicated any intention to sell, despite growing geopolitical and legal challenges, according to a Bloomberg report on Monday.  

TikTok faces the possibility of a U.S. ban if the Supreme Court upholds a national security law that would penalize service providers like Apple and Google for hosting the app past the upcoming deadline. The Chinese government is reportedly exploring scenarios, including the potential acquisition of TikTok’s U.S. unit by Musk, the owner of X, among other options under consideration. 

Should a sale occur, prospective buyers might need to pay $40 billion and $50 billion, according to Angelo Zino, Senior Vice President at CFRA Research. This valuation considers TikTok’s U.S. user base and revenue compared to competitors, though it excludes the app’s proprietary recommendation algorithms, which are unlikely to be part of any deal due to their central role in the U.S. government’s national security concerns. 

TikTok boasts approximately 115 million monthly mobile users in the U.S., trailing Instagram’s 131 million but surpassing Snapchat, Pinterest, and Reddit, with 96 million, 74 million, and 32 million users, respectively, according to Sensor Tower. 

Zino’s current valuation is notably lower than his $60 billion estimate from March 2024, when the House passed the national security legislation later signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden. The downward adjustment reflects TikTok’s ongoing geopolitical challenges and declines in industry valuation multiples since then. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have estimated TikTok’s U.S. operations at a slightly lower range of $30 billion to $35 billion as of July. They noted that the value could be discounted further due to the potential for a forced sale and challenges in finding a buyer capable of managing the regulatory scrutiny surrounding data privacy and national security. These hurdles, analysts suggest, could also impede the buyer’s ability to expand TikTok’s advertising business. 

Among the interested parties, a consortium led by billionaire Frank McCourt and O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary has expressed willingness to pay up to $20 billion for TikTok’s U.S. assets, excluding its algorithms. Unlike a Musk-led bid, this proposal might face fewer regulatory obstacles, O’Leary argued in an interview with Fox News on Monday.  Please double check the fact. Is the consortium still willing to buy?

While O’Leary acknowledgedMusk’s accomplishments, he expressed skepticism about the regulatory feasibility of a Musk acquisition, saying, “Even under Trump’s administration, the likelihood of approval would be slim.” 

Will TikTok U.S. Employees Lost Their Jobs?

On Tuesday, TikTok sought to reassure its U.S. employees that their jobs would remain unaffected next week, even if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds a law that could result in the video app being banned in the United States on Sunday. 

This message represents a shift in tone for TikTok, which had previously expressed confidence in overcoming the legal challenge to the law. It also signals that the company does not plan to exit the U.S. market in the immediate future, even in the event of a ban.

TikTok is fighting a law passed last year that would prohibit the app unless its U.S. operations are sold to a non-Chinese owner. In a message to employees on Tuesday, the company acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming decision and reassured them that they would continue to receive pay. The Supreme Court is expected to make a ruling before the law takes effect on Sunday.

"Your employment, pay, and benefits are secure, and our offices will remain open, even if this situation hasn’t been resolved before the Jan. 19 deadline," wrote Nicky Raghavan, TikTok's global head of human resources, in a message obtained by The New York Times. "The bill is not written in a way that impacts the entities through which you are employed, only the U.S. user experience."

The law would target app stores and internet hosting services by penalizing them for distributing or updating the TikTok app, effectively leading to a ban on the platform. However, it would not require the closure of TikTok's U.S. offices.

The message also emphasized that TikTok's leadership team remains focused on planning for various outcomes and moving forward.

The note, which commended employees for their "resilience and dedication," is one of the few internal acknowledgments of the ongoing legal battle in recent months. Despite the looming threat of a ban, sources indicated that there has been little internal recognition within the company that TikTok might soon face a ban in the U.S. Former employees told the newspaper    in November that executives have occasionally downplayed the situation, even joking in a company-wide meeting that it might one day be the subject of a Hollywood movie.

Although TikTok did not immediately respond to inquiries about its current U.S. workforce size, the message was sent to an internal U.S. Team News channel with more than 13,000 employees. TikTok had previously reported having over 7,000 U.S. employees.

"As we await the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court ahead of Jan. 19, we know you have a lot of questions and wish we could provide a clear roadmap of next steps," Raghavan wrote. "We know it’s unsettling to not know exactly what happens next."